Bayesian Fault Inference
Bayesian Network for Probabilistic Fault Inference
The Bayesian Network for Probabilistic Fault Inference is a 1,000-node diagnostic software system stored on radiation-hardened NOR flash that calculates real-time posterior fault probabilities from observed symptoms. Consuming 1 W of power with a 500,000-hour mean time between failures, it isolates multiple simultaneous fault scenarios across a 100-year operational lifetime in the Lunar Ark system. Operating in the unshielded lunar radiation environment—where the lack of a magnetosphere induces cumulative digital degradation—requires continuous probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty, forcing the network to maintain an inference history and execute autonomous model updates over century-scale deployments without terrestrial intervention.
Bayesian network inferring fault probabilities from observed symptoms — provides probabilistic fault diagnoses with uncertainty.
Purpose
Bayesian network inferring fault probabilities from observed symptoms — provides probabilistic fault diagnoses with uncertainty.
Context
Child of L2-SLF-FDI within the Lunar Ark system
Principles
- ▸Bayesian network of fault causes + symptoms
- ▸Real-time posterior probability inference
- ▸Multiple-fault scenario handling
- ▸Long-mission network evolution
- ▸Authenticated updates
Typical implementations
- ▸Bayesian network fault diagnosis research
- ▸Industrial probabilistic fault inference
- ▸Aerospace Bayesian methods
Lunar considerations
- ▸Long-mission probabilistic reasoning
- ▸ML model updates
- ▸L1-DVT inference history
Specifications
Functional
| primary function | Bayesian network inferring fault probabilities from observed symptoms — provides probabilistic fault diagnoses with uncertainty. |
| nodes in network | 1000 |
Physical
| mass kg | 0 |
| materials | Code on rad-hard NOR flash |
| vacuum compatibility | True |
Operational
| power consumption w | 1 |
| thermal range c | -40, 70 |
| lifetime years | 100 |
| mtbf hours | 500000 |
Interfaces
Provides
- Fault probability distributions
- Probabilistic fault assessments
Requires
- Fault hypotheses from model
Cite this entry
Lunar Ark Codex. "Bayesian Fault Inference" (L3-SLF-FDI-BAYES). Retrieved 10 September 2026, from https://lunarark.com/entry/L3-SLF-FDI-BAYES
Licensed CC-BY-SA 4.0. You may reuse and adapt this entry with attribution, under the same licence.