A multinational team led by Victor M. Velasco Herrera analysed 50 years of GOES solar X-ray observations from 1975 through 2025. The study identified correlations between superflare timing and two previously unrecognised solar cycles—approximately 1.7 years and seven years—and placed the current elevated-risk interval from mid-2025 through mid-2026, concentrated 5–25 degrees south of the solar equator. The team recommends postponing Artemis 2 until the second half of 2026; the research was published on February 13, 2026, in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.[1]
The finding matters because Artemis 2’s four astronauts will travel beyond Earth’s protective magnetic envelope, where solar flares and coronal mass ejections can deliver dangerous radiation with limited warning. The proposed forecasting method claims one to two years of advance warning for hazardous periods, while a subsequent assessment notes that NASA’s space-weather teams still cannot determine mission-scale storm risk with certainty and must monitor conditions continuously.[1][10]
The Ark team should establish a dedicated solar-risk programme combining GOES data, heliophysics forecasts, onboard particle detectors, radiation-dose modelling, and sheltered-habitat procedures. Design reviews should test whether lunar crews can reach adequately shielded spaces rapidly, preserve biological and electronic archives during extreme events, and maintain operations through forecast error; launch and construction schedules should include explicit solar-cycle gates rather than relying solely on short-term launch-day weather assessments.[1][10]