Model Predictive Thermal Controller
Predictive Thermal Management Algorithm
A model predictive thermal controller is a predictive management algorithm within an active thermal control system that models future temperatures across a rolling time horizon. The controller proactively schedules radiators and heaters to maintain temperature constraints and minimize energy consumption before transients occur. The predictable 336-hour lunar day-night cycle enables effective optimization, allowing the algorithm to pre-position hardware for impending thermal shifts. Maintaining performance over decades of operation requires online model updating to prevent degradation, while the algorithm's computational cost must remain within the habitat's allocated command and data handling processing budget.
Model-predictive controller optimizing thermal management over lunar day/night cycle horizon
Purpose
Anticipate thermal transients and pre-position system for optimal response
Context
Child of L2-TCS-CTRL in the Active Thermal Control System
Principles
- ▸MPC uses thermal system model to predict future temperatures over rolling horizon
- ▸Optimization minimizes energy consumption while maintaining temperature constraints
- ▸Day/night cycle prediction enables proactive heater/radiator scheduling
- ▸Constraint handling prevents thermal limits from being violated during transients
Typical implementations
- ▸NASA MPC research for spacecraft thermal management
- ▸Building HVAC MPC (adapted concept for Ark habitat)
- ▸Process industry MPC (Honeywell Raven, Aspen DMC)
Lunar considerations
- ▸336-hour cycle is highly predictable enabling effective MPC scheduling
- ▸Model accuracy degrades over decades requiring online model updating
- ▸Computational cost of MPC must fit within available CDH processing budget
Specifications
Functional
| primary function | Model-predictive controller optimizing thermal management over lunar day/night cycle horizon |
Interfaces
Provides
- Setpoint trajectories and scheduling from MPC optimization
Requires
- Computing resources for MPC optimization
Cite this entry
Lunar Ark Codex. "Model Predictive Thermal Controller" (L3-TCS-CTRL-MPC). Retrieved 10 September 2026, from https://lunarark.com/entry/L3-TCS-CTRL-MPC
Licensed CC-BY-SA 4.0. You may reuse and adapt this entry with attribution, under the same licence.