Remaining Useful Life Predictor
Particle Filter + ML RUL Predictor
The Remaining Useful Life Predictor is an embedded software system stored on radiation-hardened NOR flash that forecasts equipment time-to-failure across a 365-day horizon with a 30-day uncertainty window. Drawing 1 watt of power and rated for a 100-year operational lifetime with a 500,000-hour mean time between failures, it integrates particle filters, long short-term memory models, and per-equipment cumulative damage modeling to output maintenance lead times in weeks. Over extended lunar deployments, the multi-model ensemble tracks hardware degradation autonomously, utilizing authenticated updates to steadily improve forecasting accuracy as long-mission operational datasets accumulate.
Remaining-useful-life predictor combining physics-based + ML models to forecast equipment time-to-failure with uncertainty bounds.
Purpose
Remaining-useful-life predictor combining physics-based + ML models to forecast equipment time-to-failure with uncertainty bounds.
Context
Child of L2-MNT-PRED within the Lunar Ark system
Principles
- ▸Particle filter for state estimation
- ▸LSTM RUL prediction with uncertainty
- ▸Per-equipment cumulative damage model
- ▸Maintenance lead-time output (weeks-to-failure)
- ▸Coordinated with L3-MNT-SCHED-DYN
Typical implementations
- ▸NASA PHM RUL methodology
- ▸Industrial RUL prediction (terrestrial)
- ▸LSTM RUL research
Lunar considerations
- ▸Long-mission RUL accuracy improves with data
- ▸Multi-model ensemble approach
- ▸Authenticated updates
Specifications
Functional
| primary function | Remaining-useful-life predictor combining physics-based + ML models to forecast equipment time-to-failure with uncertainty bounds. |
| horizon days | 365 |
| uncertainty days | 30 |
Physical
| mass kg | 0 |
| materials | Code on rad-hard NOR flash |
| vacuum compatibility | True |
Operational
| power consumption w | 1 |
| thermal range c | -40, 70 |
| lifetime years | 100 |
| mtbf hours | 500000 |
Interfaces
Provides
- RUL forecasts per equipment
- Replacement timing input
Requires
- ML model output
Cite this entry
Lunar Ark Codex. "Remaining Useful Life Predictor" (L3-MNT-PRED-RUL). Retrieved 10 September 2026, from https://lunarark.com/entry/L3-MNT-PRED-RUL
Licensed CC-BY-SA 4.0. You may reuse and adapt this entry with attribution, under the same licence.