Advances in synthetic biology and CRISPR gene-editing have dramatically lowered the barrier to engineering novel pathogens. Unlike natural pandemics, an engineered pathogen could be designed to maximise transmission, evade existing immunity, resist treatment, and target specific populations — or no specific population at all.
The COVID-19 pandemic killed millions and destabilised global economies with a pathogen that was, in relative terms, survivable. A pathogen designed for maximum lethality — with an R₀ comparable to measles and a fatality rate comparable to Ebola — represents a plausible extinction-level biological event.
The proliferation of biotechnology infrastructure, the dual-use nature of pandemic research, and the relatively low cost of sophisticated genetic engineering make this one of the fastest-growing existential risk categories. The Biosecurity community considers engineered pandemic risk to be underweighted relative to its probability.