NASA’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center logged prediction detail 5673 for the CME observed at 2026-07-30T16:53Z, with the event identified as a NE halo in STEREO A COR2 and a NW halo in GOES CCOR-1, partially blocked by the pylon.[1] The scoreboard record is part of NASA’s CME Scoreboard, a research-based pre-event forecasting validation platform used to compare real-time forecasts against measured arrivals.[1]
The published forecast for the broader August event environment indicates arrival uncertainty on the order of hours, with one NASA ensemble forecast for a separate August CME placing arrival at 2026-08-11T10:32Z and assigning a predicted geomagnetic maximum Kp range of 4.0 to 6.0.[1] For the August 28-29 period, NOAA-linked reporting in the search results indicates expected G1 to G2 geomagnetic conditions and a potential Kp peak near 5.67, which is sufficient to stress vulnerable power, radio, and satellite systems.[1]
For the Ark, the lesson is operational: treat CME timing as hour-scale, not day-scale, and build procedures around storm watches, comms degradation, and radiation-sensitive hardware safing. The team should monitor NASA/NOAA space-weather feeds, integrate Kp-threshold automation into lunar habitat operations, and validate backup modes for high-frequency radio, timing, and power electronics before the next solar-active interval.[1]